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CAPITALSTARS - MCX COMMODITY MORNING MARKET NEWS & UPDATES - 15 DEC 2017

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Gold prices eased off highs as the dollar rebounded following strong U.S. retail sales data - Gold on MCX settled up 0.43% at 28317 but prices eased off highs as the dollar rebounded following strong U.S. retail sales data. U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in November as the holiday shopping season got off to a brisk start, pointing to sustained strength in the economy that could pave the way for further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes next year. Gold prices reversed a two-day slide on Wednesday against the backdrop of a widely expected Federal Reserve rate hike, and an unchanged outlook on the path of monetary policy tightening with three rate hikes expected in 2018. The Fed raised benchmark rates for the third time this year as widely expected, but maintained its outlook of three rate increases in 2018 on low inflation concerns.

Copper prices gained on global growth hopes after upbeat manufacturing data from China - Copper on MCX settled up 0.48% at 439.35 on global growth hopes after upbeat manufacturing data from China, overlooking a stronger dollar and Beijing’s surprise interest rates hike China’s industrial output expanded at a faster than expected pace in November as growth in the world’s top industrial metals consumer remains resilient, supported in part by a construction boom. The dollar gained versus the euro after the European Central Bank raised growth and inflation forecasts but stuck with its pledge to provide stimulus for as long as needed. On Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s move to raise rates as expected but sound a cautious note on inflation knocked the greenback lower.

Crude oil prices recovered from lows and settled flat shrugging off data forecasting a faster than expected rise in US shale oil production next year – Crude oil on MCX settled down -0.14% at 3651 recovered from the day's low even as the dollar index rebounded from December 6 lows, following an array of data from China, and the US, the world's largest consumer. Support seen after the IEA in its monthly oil market report, revised upward its projection for US oil production, warning that total supply growth could exceed demand growth in the months ahead. OPEC compliance with the deal to curb output reached its highest this year, rising to 115%. Sentiment on crude oil prices, meanwhile, remained positive amid the ongoing Forties pipeline shutdown earlier this week. The Forties pipeline carries 40% of North Sea oil and gas, and repairs could take weeks. Prices came under pressure after a larger-than-expected surge in U.S. gasoline stockpiles outweighed a larger-than-expected decline in U.S. crude inventories. While earlier this week, the Fed voted to increase interest rates by 25bps for the third time this year, while updating their three-year forecasts for growth, inflation, unemployment, and interest rates.


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CAPITALSTARS MCX COMMODITY MORNING UPDATES - 14 DEC 2017

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Gold on MCX settled up 0.19% at 28195 and trend remains positive as the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates but hinted at a "wait-and-see" approach to further rate hikes. As expected, the Fed raised the benchmark U.S. interest rate to a range of 1.25% to 1.5%. However, the Fed maintained earlier forecast for just three 1/4-point rate hikes in 2018. Concerns about stubbornly low inflation prompted the cautious outlook. Underlying U.S. consumer inflation slowed in November, held down by weak healthcare costs and the biggest drop in apparel prices in nearly two decades, which could impact the pace at which the Federal Reserve raises interest rates next year. The European Central Bank is likely to bump up some of its economic forecasts on Thursday and may debate tweaking its pledge to keep money at its current, ultra-easy level, but will ultimately reaffirm is policy stance. Congressional Republicans reached a deal on final tax legislation, clearing the way for final votes next week on a package that would slash the U.S. corporate tax rate to 21 percent and cut taxes for wealthy Americans. UK Prime Minister Theresa May's government was defeated, when lawmakers forced through changes to its Brexit blueprint that ministers said could endanger Britain's departure from the European Union.

Crude oil on MCX settled down -0.98% at 3656 after data showing crude stockpiles fell for the second straight week failed to offset a larger-than-expected build in gasoline supplies. Inventories of U.S. crude fell by roughly 5.1 million barrels for the week ended Dec. 8, beating expectations of a draw of 3.8 million barrels. Gasoline inventories – one of the products that crude is refined into – rose by 5.7 million barrels, well above expectations for rise of 2.5 million barrels, while supplies of distillate – the class of fuels that includes diesel and heating oil – fell by about 1.4 million barrels, above expectations for a build of 902,000 barrels. Also weighing on crude prices was a rise in production to record highs as data showed weekly U.S. crude production jumped by 73,000 barrels a day to 9.78 million barrels a day. The EIA’s report comes after OPEC revealed in its monthly report that production in November, fell by 133,000 bpd to 32.5 million bpd but revised upward its 2018 forecast for non-OPEC output. OPEC forecasts non-OPEC supply growth to rise by 120,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 990,000 bpd. The oil-cartel said, however, that the 2018 forecast for non-OPEC supply is “associated with considerable uncertainties”. US oil supply is now expected to grow by 1.1 million bpd in 2018, an upward revision of 180,000 barrels, according to the report. Rising non-OPEC production has added to fears that oil producers not part of the production-cut agreement would continue to ramp up output, slowing the rebalancing in markets.

Copper on MCX settled up 0.63% at 437.25 as prices extended a correction from last week’s sharp fall, but moves were muted ahead of an expected interest rate increase from Federal Reserve. China’s central bank nudged money market interest rates upward on Thursday just hours after the Federal Reserve raised the U.S. benchmark, as Beijing seeks to prevent destabilizing capital outflows without hurting economic growth. The People’s Bank of China called it a “normal market reaction” to the Fed that would keep interest rate expectations reasonable and help with the deleveraging campaign. China’s industrial output and retail sales grew at a steady pace last month, while fixed asset investment cooled slightly, reinforcing signs of a modest slowdown in the world’s second-biggest economy amid a government crackdown on financial risks. Tighter rules on polluting factories have also crimped production, while higher borrowing costs have weighed on overall economic activity. Thursday’s data showed industrial output rose 6.1 percent in November from a year earlier, just above analysts’ estimates for an increase of 6.0 percent, and below the 6.2 percent gain in October. Glencore sees global copper demand to increase by 4.1 million mt by 2030 as ceo Ivan Glasenberg believes total electric vehicles sales would surge to 31.7 million units by then, from 2.1 million units in 2020.


Investment & trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.
CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647

CAPITALSTARS MCX COMMODITY MORNING MARKET UPDATES - 13 DEC 2017

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Gold Prices Gain In Asia Ahead Of Fed Announcement On Rates - Gold gained slightly in Asia on Wednesday with the Fed widely expected to announce a quarter point hike in rates, but the language on 2018 will be seen as key for the precious metal. Overnight, gold prices remained at five-month lows amid dollar strength which followed upbeat economic data pointing to an improving inflationary environment, while a widely expected Federal Reserve interest rate hike continued to weigh on the precious metal. Upbeat wholesale inflation data pointing to an improving inflationary environment which could encourage the Federal Reserve to adopt a tighter rate-hike cycle in 2018 boosted the dollar, pressuring gold prices lower. Following the solid PPI data on Tuesday, Bank of Montreal said that although markets are pricing about two hikes for 2018, a strong consumer inflation report due Wednesday, could alter the Fed’s future monetary policy plans. As well as an interest rate decision, the Federal Open Market Committee is expected on Wednesday to reveal an update to the summary of economic projections, which could offer clues on monetary policy.

Strike to hit Teck's Quebrada Blanca copper mine on Wednesday - A strike is going to hit Teck Resources’ copper mine Quebrada Blanca in Chile on Wednesday due to a failure to agree on contracts mediated by the government, the mine’s labor union said on Tuesday. The mine has produced 17,300 mt of copper this year. Teck Resources is considering to invest $4.7 billion for the mine for a second-stage exploration and would make the decision in the second quarter of next year. SMM believes the strike will have little impact on copper supply due to its relatively small output.

Oil prices recover on big U.S. crude stock drawdown, pipeline shutdown supports - Oil prices rose on Wednesday as industry data showed a larger-than-expected drawdown in U.S. crude stockpiles, while expectations for an extended shutdown of a major North Sea crude pipeline also continued to bolster markets.Britain's biggest pipeline from its North Sea oil and gas fields is likely to be shut for several weeks for repairs, its operator said on Tuesday. The pipeline, which carries about 450,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Forties crude, was shut after cracks were found. It has particular significance to global markets because Forties is the largest out of the five crude oil streams that underpin the dated Brent benchmark.A number of producers, including BP (LON:BP) and Royal Dutch Shell (LON:RDSa), said they had closed down oil fields in response. "Four weeks is much longer than most projections," said Tomomichi Akuta, senior economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Research and Consulting in Tokyo. "The pipeline incident came just when the markets are tightening on coordinated production cuts."

Investment & trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.
CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647

CAPITALSTARS MCX COMMODITY MARKET NEWS & UPDATES - 12 DEC 2017

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Gold Prices Slip Slightly In Asia With focus On Fed Language - Gold prices dipped slightly in Asia on Tuesday with language from the Fed after its rate announcement on Wednesday seen as key for direction. Overnight, gold prices remained under pressure on Monday despite weakness in the dollar as data showed money managers slashed their bullish bets on the precious metal to a 17-week low ahead of a widely expected Federal Reserve interest rate hike. Fresh from a three-week losing streak, gold prices struggled to pare recent losses as investors awaited the final Federal Reserve meeting of the year which is slated to get underway on Tuesday, with a policy decision due Wednesday. As well as the policy decision on interest rates, investors are expected to parse the Federal Reserve’s update to the summary of economic projections for clues on future monetary policy. According to investing.com’s fed rate monitor tool, 100% of traders expect the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates on Wednesday. In anticipation of further monetary policy tightening, traders have slashed their bullish bets on gold to a 17-week low. Gold is sensitive to moves in U.S. rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion.

Shandong Nanshan Aluminium to raise 5 billion yuan for Indonesian alumina project - Shareholders of Shandong Nanshan Aluminium have approved the company’s plan to raise 5 billion yuan to invest in the 1-million-mt alumina project in Bintan Nanshan Industrial Park in Indonesia. The company believes that this project would bring additional raw material security to China’s aluminium industry.  

Copper prices edged higher following robust trade data from China - Copper on MCX settled up 0.91% at 431.7 following robust trade data from China. China’s bank lending in the first 11 months of 2017 topped last year’s record due to a stronger-than-expected jump in November credit. Household loans, mostly mortgages, also rose and accounted for 55 percent of total new loans. The benchmark copper price on the London Metal Exchange rose 1.5 percent, its highest intraday jump in nearly two months, to close at $6,670 a tonne. The price has dipped by about 8 percent since hitting a three-year high in October.  

Crude Oil Gains Solidly In Asia On UK Pipeline Outage, API Estimates Awaited -  Crude oil prices gained in Asia on Tuesday led by Brent crossing $65 a barrel for the first time since 2015 as a shutdown of a key pipeline led to a spike in the global benchmark and investors looked ahead to US industry inventory estimates on crude and refined products.The American Petroleum Institute reports its estimates of US crude and refined product stocks last week with a 3.780 million barrels draw in crude and a build of 416,000 barrels in distillates and a 2.184 million barrels gain in gasoline supplies expected. The estimates will be followed on Wednesday by official data from the Energy Information Administration. Overnight, Brent oil prices settled sharply higher on Monday amid supply disruptions after a major North Sea pipeline shut for repairs, while signs of rising US production capped gains in crude oil prices. The Brent-WTI spread rose to the widest since October, as Brent prices surge after the shutdown of the Forties pipeline, which carries 40% of North Sea oil and gas, sparked expectations of tightening supply.The shutdown comes four days after the pipeline operating capacity was cut following reports of “small” leak last week.


Investment & trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.
CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647

CAPITALSTARS MCX COMMODITY MORNING MARKET UPDATES - 11 DEC 2017

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BULLION :- Gold remained under pressure for fourth consecutive session following strength in the dollar against its major crosses. Last week, the yellow metal was weighed down after Senate Republicans approved a rewrite of the U.S. tax code, stoking optimism over President Donald Trump’s stimulus plans. Economic numbers released from the US also came in better than-expected that supported the dollar on lower levels. Non-farm payrolls number, released on Friday, showed the economy added 228,000 jobs in November compared to expectation of 198,000 jobs. But in the week, focus will be on FOMC policy statement; expectation is that the Federal Reserve could consider raising rates but outlook for the coming year will be keenly watched.

ENERGY :- Crude oil prices were pulled down as the latest rise in the U.S. rig count pointed to a further increase in American production, potentially undermining efforts led by OPEC to tighten markets. The amount of rigs drilling for new oil production in the U.S. rose by two in the week to Dec.8, to 751, the highest level since September and close to levels from top producers Russia and Saudi Arabia. Crude futures were buoyed by data showing China’s oil imports rose to 9.01 million bpd last month, the second highest on record, data from the General Administration of Customs. We believe underlying trend for oil prices is likely to remain positive but some liquidation is likely given the record amount of long positions in the futures market. Natural gas slumped as inventory data showed a surprise buildup in stocks last week and is likely to remain under pressure today.

BASEMETAL : - Base Metals traded marginally higher but downside threat still continues to prevail in the market. Weaker imports for base metals for second month could imply a stubbornly weak economy and bring renewed short selling interest in base metals complex. Zinc rallied on data that China's zinc production fell by 1.1% YoY in Nov to 423,000 tonnes. China's exports and imports unexpectedly accelerated last month is encouraging sign for world's second-biggest economy, though it is estimated that growth will continue to cool amid government crackdown on financial risks and polluting factories. Exports in November rose 12.3% YoY, the fastest pace in eight months, led by strong sales of electronics and high-tech goods, while commodity purchases helped lift imports. Imports grew 17.7% YoY in November, also well above expectations of 11.3% growth and rising at the fastest pace since September.


Investment & trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.
CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647