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MCX COMMODITY MARKET SPECIAL REPORT - 25 AUG 2016

Best MCX Tips, Commodity Trading Tips, Copper Tips, crude oil tips, Mcx Commodity Tips

GOLD:

Low volume and general nervousness about the direction of U.S. interest rates kept gold prices in check on Wednesday. Many major investors were on the sidelines, choosing to wait until they get a little clarity from a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen on Friday which will be closely watched for clues as to the timing of the next Fed rate hike.

Yellen will deliver a speech before a group of central bankers at a conference held at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Based on the price action in the gold market this week, it looks as if investors are already anticipating hawkish commentary from Yellen. This would put her in line with a few Fed members who recently issued hawkish comments about the strength of the economy and the timing of the next rate hike.

Going into the meeting, it looks as if investors are pricing in a 21 percent chance of a rate increase in September, a 50 percent chance of at least one hike by the end of the year, and a 100 percent chance of a 25-basis point hike in September 2017.

CRUDE OIL:

The current volatility is being driven by speculation over whether Saudi Arabia and Russia can convince other OPEC and non-OPEC countries to come to an agreement over reducing or perhaps freezing current production levels. Analysts and traders are casting doubts, however, that such an agreement can be pulled off at a meeting in Algeria scheduled for September 26-28 as various OPEC members have their own agendas.

COPPER:

LME copper registered a 3.8% drop during August 22-24 as LME copper inventories grew 44,075 tonnes.

The catalysts behind the selling pressure were a jump in copper stocks, increased mine supply and a stronger U.S. Dollar.

Supply was a big concern on Wednesday as inventories rose in Asian warehouses, fueling fears about weaker demand ahead in top consumer China. The huge inventory rise in Asian warehouses suggests China is exporting its surplus. In Asia, it was reported that stocks of copper in LME-approved warehouses rose by a quarter, or more than 50,000 tones.

ALUMINIUM:

Alumina prices in China, which had been mired in downward track over the past few months, will not turn any worse in the second half of the year, SMM expects.

China Aluminum International Trading Co. (Chalco Trading) cut aluminum prices it offered in major markets today after hike in previous day, it said on its WeChat.   

Indian Aluminium producers are seeking for further increases in import duties and other  measures, said Nalco and Vedanta officials. The further duty increases appeal by  producers is to control cheap imports from China and other countries.

An  increase in import duty by another 2.5% is being appealed in primary Auminium by  the producers which will bring the import duty to 10%. They are also seeking for  implementing a higher tax for Aluminium scrap which is now at 2.5%.

Market expects US Fed Chairwoman to give hawkish speech during Friday’s conference, which will favor the US dollar.

LEAD:

The ILZSG preliminary data indicates that global refined lead market was in surplus of 37,000 tonnes during the first half of 2016. The total reported lead inventories increased by 37,000 tonnes during the same period.

The lead mine production reported decline in countries such as Australia, India, China and the United States. The overall global lead mine production dropped by nearly 6.8% during Jan-June ’16 when compared with the corresponding six-month period in 2015. 

The world lead mine output during the six-month period this year totaled 2.218 million tonnes as against 2.381 million tonnes during the same period in 2015.

The refined lead metal production during the initial six-month period of 2016 totaled 5.161 million tonnes, marginally lower by 2.44% when compared with the 5.290 million tonnes output during corresponding six-month period in 2015.

The global demand for refined lead metal witnessed marginal dip of 3.4% to 5.124 million tonnes during January to June this year.

ZINC:

The zinc mine output declined considerably in major producing countries including Australia, India, Ireland and Peru. Overall, the zinc mine output declined by 6.7% during the initial six-month period in 2016 when compared with the corresponding period last year.

The refined zinc metal production during the six-month period totaled 6.648 million tonnes, 4.21% lower when compared with the 6.940 million tonnes output during corresponding six-month period in 2015. The refined zinc metal production surged higher in the Republic of Korea. On the other hand, production recorded decline in major producing countries including Argentina, Australia, Thailand and the United States.


The global demand for refined zinc metal has increased marginally by 0.6% to 6.786 million tonnes during January to June this year, as compared with 6.746 million tonnes during the same period last year.


DAILY COMMODITY MARKET NEWS & LEVELS - 25 AUG 2016

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HIGH LIGHTS:- 

Brent, NYMEX trade in narrow range in Asia as API data weighs.

Gold prices nudge down slightly in early Asia in cautious trade.

LME Copper to Stay Range-Bound.



PRECIOUS METALS:- 
Gold prices drifted lower in early Asia on Thursday in cautious trade as investors await views from the U.S. Fed chief at the end of the week to set the tone on chances of a rate hike this year.Gold for December delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange eased 0.06% to $1,328.95 a troy ounce, while silver futures fell 0.13% to $18.532 a troy ounce.
Overnight, gold prices were slightly lower in North American hours on Wednesday, remaining in a familiar trading range as market players looked ahead to a highly anticipated speech from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen at the end of this week.
Fed Chair Yellen may provide fresh clues on the timing of the next U.S. rate hike at a speech during an annual meeting of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Friday.




PRECIOUS LEVEL
CS GOLD (OCT) OVERVIEW:
TREND : BEARISH
RESIST 2: 31570
RESIST 1: 31325
SUP 1: 30850
SUP 2: 30650

CS SILVER (SEPTEMBER) OVERVIEW:
TREND : BEARISH
RESIST 2: 44880
RESIST 1: 44500
SUP1: 43000
SUP2: 42500

BASE METALS:- 
LME copper should stabilize between USD 4,625-4,655/mt on Thursday and SHFE copper will fluctuate between RMB 36,000-36,400/mt.Market will eye US July durable goods orders, weekly jobless claims and Germany August IFO index today. 
US durable goods orders fell 4% MoM in June, the biggest decline since August 2014 and much worse than expected. This is due mainly to weakening demand for civil use aircrafts and national defense products. However, US durable goods orders might improve in July since Markit’s US manufacturing PMI rose markedly in July.  


BASE METAL LEVELS
CS COPPER (AUGUST) OVERVIEW:
TREND : BEARISH
RESIST 2:317
RESIST 1:315
SUP1:305
SUP2:303

CS NICKEL (AUG) OVERVIEW:
TREND : BEARISH
RESIST 2:693
RESIST 1:680
SUP1:650
SUP2:640

CS ZINC (AUG) OVERVIEW:
TREND : SIDEWAYS
RESIST 2:155.00
RESIST 1:154.00
SUP1:152.60
SUP2:151.00

CS LEAD (AUG) OVERVIEW: 
TREND : BEARISH
RESIST 2:126.00
RESIST 1:125.00
SUP1:123.50
SUP2:122.50

CS ALUMINIUM (AUG) OVERVIEW: 
TREND : BEARISH
RESIST 2:111.50
RESIST 1:110.90
SUP1:109.30
SUP2:108.50

ENERGIES:- 
Crude traded in a small range in Asia on Thursday with bearish data on U.S. stockpiles setting back sentiment for demand-led gains and growing caution on whether the world's top producers can act in concert on output curbs.
Crude oil for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange swung between small gains and losses and was last down flat at $46.77 a barrel.
Overnight, the U.S. Energy Information Administration noted in its weekly report that crude oil inventories rose by 2.5 million barrels in the week ended August 19. Market analysts' expected a crude-stock drop of 0.5 million barrels, while the American Petroleum Institute late Tuesday reported a supply gain of 4.5 million barrels.



ENERGY LEVELS
CS CRUDE OIL (SEPTEMBER) OVERVIEW:                           
TREND :BEARISH
RESIST 2:3260
RESIST 1:3230
SUP1:3100
SUP2:3060
CS NATURAL GAS (AUGUST) OVERVIEW: 
TREND :BULLISH
RESIST 2:192.00
RESIST 1:190.00
SUP1:185.00
SUP2:183.00

 CAPITALSTARS

DAILY COMMODITY MARKET NEWS & LEVELS - 24 AUG 2016

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HIGH LIGHTS:- 

LME Copper to Stay Range-Bound.

NYMEX, Brent crude weaker in Asia as API estimates show solid build.

Gold prices weaker in Asia as investors cautious ahead of Yellen views.


PRECIOUS METALS:- 
Gold dipped in Asia on Wednesday with the focus on remarks by the Fed chief at the end of the week to see if recent hawkish views by colleagues on the need to hike interest rates soon are repeated and expanded.
Gold for December delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange eased 0.29% to $1,342.15 a troy ounce, while silver futures dipped 0.48% to $18.832 a troy ounce.
Yellen may provide fresh clues on the timing of the next U.S. rate hike at a speech during an annual meeting of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Friday.



PRECIOUS LEVEL
CS GOLD (OCT) OVERVIEW:

TREND : SIDEWAYS
RESIST 2: 31500
RESIST 1: 31400
SUP 1: 31200
SUP 2: 31000

CS SILVER (SEPTEMBER) OVERVIEW:

TREND : BEARISH
RESIST 2: 45290
RESIST 1: 44950
SUP1: 44000
SUP2: 43500

BASE METALS:- 
LME copper is expected to range between USD 9,300-9,400/mt and SHFE copper to fluctuate between RMB 70,000-71,200/mt.Market will eye US crude oil stocks, Germany Q2 GDP and US July existing home sales today.
Preliminary annual rate of Germany’s Q2 GDP recorded the biggest growth in five years, so final annual rate of Germany’s Q2 GDP is expected to be positive as well. However, economist pointed out that Germany’s GDP growth in H2 2016 may not be as strong as in H1. US existing home sales hit a 9-year high in June and rose for four months in a row. Such high growth means US existing home sales may slow down significantly in July. US housing market remains strong, though, as reflected by positive July new home sales.  

BASE METAL LEVELS
CS COPPER (AUGUST) OVERVIEW:
TREND : BEARISH
RESIST 2:319
RESIST 1:317
SUP1:311
SUP2:309

CS NICKEL (AUG) OVERVIEW:
TREND : SIDEWAYS
RESIST 2:706
RESIST 1:694
SUP1:680
SUP2:670

CS ZINC (AUG) OVERVIEW:
TREND : SIDEWAYS
RESIST 2:156.00
RESIST 1:155.00
SUP1:154.00
SUP2:153.30

CS LEAD (AUG) OVERVIEW: 
TREND : BEARISH
RESIST 2:126.50
RESIST 1:125.50
SUP1:124.00
SUP2:123.00

CS ALUMINIUM (AUG) OVERVIEW: 
TREND : SIDEWAYS
RESIST 2:113.00
RESIST 1:112.00
SUP1:110.50
SUP2:109.20

ENERGIES:- 
Crude oil prices fell further in Asia on Wednesday on a spurt in U.S. industry figures for stockpiles last week, but there was evidence that gasoline demand was up with a fall in supplies as the Labor Day weekend approaches.
Crude oil for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 1.10% to $47.57 a barrel. London-traded Brent futures dipped 0.86% to $49.53 a barrel.The American Petroleum Institute reported a 4.46 million-barrel rise in U.S. crude supplies for the week ended Aug. 19, sources said.
There was a solid 2.1 million draw in gasoline stocks, more than expected, while distillates showed a draw of 800,000 barrels on the week. Gasoline stocks are key ahead of the end of the Summer driving season though imports from China continue to weigh on the market.




ENERGY LEVELS
CS CRUDE OIL (SEPTEMBER) OVERVIEW:                           
TREND :BEARISH
RESIST 2:3300
RESIST 1:3270
SUP1:3150
SUP2:3120
CS NATURAL GAS (AUGUST) OVERVIEW: 
TREND :BULLISH
RESIST 2:190.00
RESIST 1:188.00
SUP1:183.00
SUP2:180.00

 CAPITALSTARS

MCX COMMODITY SPECIAL REPORT ON - 24 AUG 2016

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COPPER:

The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) has released preliminary data for the month of May this year in its August 2016 Copper Bulletin. According to preliminary ICSG data, copper production and usage data indicates that the refined copper market ended in a production deficit of around 222,000 metric tonnes.

World refined production increased by nearly 3.5% (nearly 330,000 t) during the first five months of 2016 in comparison with the corresponding five-month period from January to May last year.

The world copper mine production has increased by around 4.0% (nearly 345,000 t) during the initial five-month period of 2016. 

The mine output from Peru reported significant improvement of 52%, primarily due to new and expanded capacities that has come online during the past two years. The recovery in production by Canada, the US and Mongolia and expanded capacity in Mexico also contributed to the sharp recovery in production levels. On the other hand, production declined by 5% in Chile during the month. 

The table given below provides World Refined Copper Supply Trends for the first five months of the current year:
Jan ‘16
Feb ‘16
Mar ‘16
Apr ‘16
May ‘16
World Mine Production
1,580
1,518
1,684
1,616
1,713
World Refined Production

1,952
1,822
1,988
1,908
1929
Note: The above figures are in thousand metric tonnes

ALUMINIUM:

Chalco Hikes Aluminum Prices in Major Markets on August 24

China Aluminum International Trading Co. (Chalco Trading) raised aluminum prices it offered in major markets today after two days of cuts, it said on its WeChat.

SHFE 1610 aluminum will hover at highs of RMB 12,400-12,550/mt as shorts will be cautious about entering.

LEAD:

LME lead should challenge USD 2,800/mt with positive fundamentals and SHFE lead will swing between RMB 19,000-19,300/mt. Lead spot prices in China’s domestic market are expected to be at RMB 17,600-17,800/mt

ZINC:

Preliminary data from the International Lead and Zing Study Group reveals the global market for refined zinc metal was in deficit from January to May this year with reported total inventories also declining over that same time frame.
Decreases in output from India, Australia, Peru, Ireland and the U.S. led to the significant 7.7% reduction in global zinc mine production in the first half of 2016, compared to the same time period in 2015.
World output of refined zinc metal declined by 3.6% with reductions in India, Japan and the U.S. being partially balanced by increases in the Republic of Korea and Namibia,” the ILZSG report stated.

The report also stated that world demand for refined zinc metal grew 0.6% due to the rise in Chinese apparent usage, to the tune of 8.2%, that offset declines in Japan, Taiwan, the Republic of Korea and the U.S.

 CAPITALSTARS

MCX DAILY COMMODITY MARKET NEWS & LEVELS - 23 AUG 2016

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HIGH LIGHTS:- 

Gold prices trend weaker in Asia with Fed rate hike timing in focus.

Oil prices fall as analysts say market still oversupplied.

LME Copper to Fluctuate at Lows.


PRECIOUS METALS:- 
Gold prices were slightly weaker in Asia with the focus on prospects for a Fed rate hike this year dominating market sentiment.
Gold for December delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 0.14% to $ 1,341.50 a troy ounce, while silver future edged up 0.02% to $18.862 a troy ounce.
Overnight, gold prices declined in North American trade on Monday, touching a two-week low amid indications the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates as soon as next month.
Odds for a near-term rate hike mounted after Fed vice chairman Stanley Fischer said on Sunday that the U.S. economy was close to hitting the central bank's targets for full employment and 2% inflation.


PRECIOUS LEVEL
CS GOLD (OCT) OVERVIEW:
TREND : SIDEWAYS
RESIST 2: 31500
RESIST 1: 31400
SUP 1: 31200
SUP 2: 31000
CS SILVER (SEPTEMBER) OVERVIEW:
TREND : BEARISH
RESIST 2: 45700
RESIST 1: 45200
SUP1: 44300
SUP2: 44000
BASE METALS:- 
LME copper will move at lows of USD 4,740-4,780/mt during Asian trading hours Tuesday.
Market will eye preliminary August manufacturing PMIs from Germany, the euro zone and the US, as well as US July new home sales today. Economy in the euro zone showed obvious signs of stabilizing recently, with inflation up. It is expected that manufacturing PMIs in Germany and the euro zone will perform well, which will boost August consumer confidence index in the euro zone. Markit’s August manufacturing PMI for the US might diverge from ISM’s manufacturing PMI and extend gains. This will boost the US dollar.   
BASE METAL LEVELS
CS COPPER (AUGUST) OVERVIEW:
TREND : SIDEWAYS
RESIST 2:325
RESIST 1:324
SUP1:317
SUP2:316

CS NICKEL (AUG) OVERVIEW:
TREND : SIDEWAYS
RESIST 2:706
RESIST 1:694
SUP1:680
SUP2:670

CS ZINC (AUG) OVERVIEW:
TREND : SIDEWAYS
RESIST 2:156.00
RESIST 1:155.00
SUP1:153.30
SUP2:152.00

CS LEAD (AUG) OVERVIEW: 
TREND : BEARISH
RESIST 2:125.70
RESIST 1:125.00
SUP1:123.50
SUP2:122.80

CS ALUMINIUM (AUG) OVERVIEW: 
TREND : BULLISH
RESIST 2:113.00
RESIST 1:112.00
SUP1:110.50
SUP2:109.20

ENERGIES:- 
Oil prices fell over 1 percent on Tuesday, with Goldman Sachs warning that August's price rally had been overdone and that a proposed oil production freeze at current near-record levels would not help rein in an oversupplied market.Analysts said the falls were a result of an overdone price rally this month which lifted crude by over 20 percent between the beginnings of the month and late last week.
While oil prices have rebounded sharply since Aug. 1, we believe this move has not been driven by incrementally better oil fundamentals, but instead by headlines around a potential output freeze as well as a sharp weakening of the dollar (and exacerbated by a sharp reversal in net speculative positions)," Goldman Sachs said.


ENERGY LEVELS
CS CRUDE OIL (SEPTEMBER) OVERVIEW:                           
TREND :BULLISH
RESIST 2:3350
RESIST 1:3320
SUP1:3230
SUP2:3200
CS NATURAL GAS (AUGUST) OVERVIEW: 
TREND :BULLISH
RESIST 2:181.00
RESIST 1:179.00
SUP1:173.00
SUP2:170.00
 CAPITALSTARS