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MCX COMMODITY MORNING MARKET UPDATES - 18 OCT 2017

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GOLD :- Gold prices fell to a one-week low on Tuesday on speculation that the eventual successor to U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will favor higher interest rates. Spot gold was down 0.7 percent at $1,285.40 an ounce, while U.S. gold futures for December delivery slipped 1.2 percent to $1,286.80 per ounce. U.S. President Donald Trump was favoring policy hawk John Taylor as the next head of the Fed, Bloomberg reported, pushing the dollar higher and lifting U.S. Treasury yields. Taylor, a Stanford economist, is seen as more likely to raise rates than Yellen, which would boost the dollar and dent gold and U.S. Treasuries Meanwhile, the U.S. Labor Department said on Thursday import prices jumped 0.7 percent last month, the biggest gain since June 2016, pushing inflation expectations higher and increasing the likelihood of monetary policy tightening. The Fed will probably need to raise rates in December and then three or four times “over the course of next year”, assuming U.S. unemployment continues to fall and inflation rises, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said. Gold’s generally loses some of its in appeal when interest rates are higher as it yields no interest.

CRUDE OIL :- Oil gave up earlier gains Tuesday, pulling back in the wake of a two-session climb, but fighting in Iraq and tensions between the United States and Iran kept prices close to a three-week high. November West Texas Intermediate crude fell by 23 cents, or 0.4%, to $51.64 a barrel on
the New York Mercantile Exchange after tapping a high of $52.25. It settled at $51.87 Monday, it’s highest since Sept. 27. Brent crude for December, -0.66% lost a penny to $57.81 a barrel. A monthly report from the Energy Information Administration released Monday showed expectations for a rise of 81,000 barrels a day to 6.12 million barrels a day in shale oil production from seven key U.S. shale regions in November. Elsewhere, Iraqi forces clashed Monday with fighters from Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdish region in the oil-rich province of Kirkuk, in a continuing standoff over Kurdish independence. The violence followed a referendum late September in which the Kurds voted overwhelmingly in favor of independence, in defiance of the central government in Baghdad and other regional powers. Iraqi Kurdistan exports nearly 600,000 barrels of oil a day, mainly via a pipeline that runs through Turkey. With Iraqi forces now in control of some Kurdish oil fields, much of these exports could be blocked. That potential reduction to global supply has boosted crude prices in recent days.

BASE METAL:- Zinc prices slipped to their lowest level in over three weeks on Tuesday as the dollar strengthened and inventories rose, highlighting concern that increasing supply would ease shortages. On-warrant zinc Metal not earmarked for delivery from warehouses and available for
investors - jumped by 17,850 tonnes, bringing the rise this month to 27 percent. Zinc has gained 21 percent this year, touching its highest price in a decade at $3,308.75 a tonne this month on concern about shortages, though these might soon be eased. LME benchmark zinc closed down 3.4 percent at $3,085 a tonne, the biggest one-day fall in six months. It touched a low of $3,054, the weakest level since Sept. 22. Also pressuring zinc were moves by the Shanghai Futures Exchange to limit the size of December future positions and adjusting fees. The dollar strengthened to a oneweek
high against a basket of major currencies, weighing on the entire base metals complex. A stronger dollar makes metals more expensive for investors using other currencies.

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MCX COMMODITY MARKET MORNING UPDATES - 17 OCT 2017

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GOLD - Gold markets have shown a bit of strength during the Monday session, as we continue to hang above the $1300 level. That is a very bullish sign, and as you can see we can already look at the 24-hour exponential moving average as dynamic support as well. It is just below the $1300 level, so I think that pullbacks towards that area will continue to attract interest. I think that the gold markets breaking above the $1300 level is a very bullish sign, and that it should continue to send money into this market place going forward. I think that the $1325 level above is the next target, and I believe that it’s a matter of time before the buyers return on these pullbacks as they represent value.

CRUDE OIL - December West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures rallied on Monday to its highest level since September 29, putting it in a position to challenge the last main top at $53.11. The catalyst behind the rally was a new Iraq conflict that threatens output. Iraqi forces moved on Sunday and Monday to take controls of oil fields in the Kurdish-held city of Kirkuk and the surrounding areas. This conflict is different from the other military activity in the Middle East because it involves oil and oilfield infrastructure.

NATURAL GAS - The natural gas markets gapped lower at the open on Monday, reaching towards the $2.96 level initially, rallying slightly, and then broke down even further. It looks as if we are trying to find some type of support near the $2.92 level, but I think at best we are going to see a bounce that we can start selling again. I still have a target of $2.85 underneath, and I still believe that there is a massive amount of resistance at the $3.00 level above. That resistance should continue to show selling pressure due to the fact that US fracking companies become profitable above that level, and therefore the massive oversupply of natural gas starts getting offered again every time we get close to that level.

COPPER - December Comex High Grade Copper futures soared to their highest level on more than three-years on renewed optimism over China’s economic outlook. Prices in New York started higher early in the session after copper on the London Metal Exchange jumped 2.9 percent, touching an August 2014 high. The rally was primarily supported by upbeat economic data from China. It’s producer price inflation unexpectedly accelerated to a six-month high in September as a construction boom showed no signs of abating and a government crackdown on air pollution triggered fears of winter shortages. In other news, China’s unwrought copper imports surged by 26.5 percent in September from a year ago, customs data showed on Friday, but remained on course for an annual drop in 2007. China’s economy is expected to grow by 7 percent in the second half of this year, the country’s central bank governor said, defying economists’ expectations for a slowdown.Finally, hedge funds and money managers raised their net long positions in copper futures and options for the first time in five weeks, in the week to October 10, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.


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MCX COMMODITY MARKET NEWS UPDATES - 16 OCT 2017

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Prices Jump on Iraqi Military Action, Fear of New Sanctions Against Iran - U.S. West Texas Intermediate and international-benchmark Brent crude oil surged early Monday after Iraqi army units advanced toward Kirkuk, a major oil city that is populated by the country’s Kurdish people and which recently declared independence. According to the Associated Press which cited state-run television, the Iraqi national army has taken control of nearby areas claimed by the Kurds, and has done so without facing opposition from Kurdish peshmerga fighters. However, there were no confirmed reports of fighting. Iraq is the second-biggest oil producer in OPEC. Kurdish-controlled areas of Iraq are among the most productive in the country and contain much of its energy infrastructure. Prices were also supported by concerns over renewed U.S. sanctions against Iran. On Friday, U.S. President Trump refused to formally certify that Tehran is complying with the accord even though international inspectors say it is.

GOLD - Gold futures finished the week on a high note amid concerns over U.S. inflation. The catalyst behind the rally on Friday was a lower-than-expected U.S. consumer inflation report. The price action indicates investors are worried about inflation’s impact on the pace of U.S. interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. December Comex Gold settled last week at $1304.60, up $29.70 or 2.33%. According to the Labor Department, the Consumer Price Index jumped 0.5 percent last month after advancing 0.4 percent in August. Traders were looking for a 0.6 percent increase. However, the more closely followed core rate was unchanged at 1.7% for the fifth month in a row and still below the Fed’s 2% target. Gold traders said the headline inflation was misleading because it rose largely because hurricanes drove up gas-pump prices. Stripping out the impact of volatile food and energy, Core CPI rose a much smaller 0.1%. Additionally, the recent energy-driven rise in CPI pushed the yearly rate of inflation to 2.2% from 1.9% to match a six-month high. Throughout the week, gold was supported by a softer U.S. Dollar and geopolitical tensions in Spain and North Korea. In Spain, the leader of Catalonia’s government called for a reduction in tensions in its standoff with Madrid over a bid in the wealthy northeastern region for independence. Also last week, Russia and China both called for restraint on North Korea following a Twitter post from U.S. President Trump hinting that military action was on his mind.

Supported by Rising Heat Demand, Cold Weather - After struggling early in the week, U.S. natural gas futures mounted strong recovery late in the week to finish higher. Prices were supported by forecasts for rising heating demand and colder weather this winter than in the past two years. Traders also said that output was slow to recover as energy companies were still reactivating Gulf of Mexico gas wells that had been shut due to Hurricane Nate, which hit the area the week-ending October 6The new forecast is expected to underpin prices this week, but it’s hard to tell at this time if this means a range bound trade or an extension of the newly formed rally. Additionally, traders think the gas burned to heat homes and businesses as the weather turns colder through the end of October would basically offset declines in gas burned to generate power to run air conditioners.

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MCX COMMODITY MARKET UPDATES - 13 OCT 2017

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Bearish IEA Demand Outlook Could Pressure Prices - U.S.  West Texas Intermediate and international-benchmark Brent crude oil finished down on Thursday, but off its lows after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a larger-than-expected decline in U. S. inventories and a falloff in weekly production on Thursday. The price action in the crude oil markets on Thursday suggests investors were more concerned about future demand than the weekly inventories picture.  From this we can conclude that the outlook for the market over the near-term is likely to be bearish because of the forecast for lower oil demand in 2018. Traders are saying the one of the IEA report was bearish because it suggested that demand for OPEC crude next year would not be sufficient to absorb all the available supplies. This likely means OPEC must deepen its production cuts to finish its job of bringing oil stocks back to the five-year average. This supports what I have been saying all along that prices are likely to remain range bound until OPEC and other major producers vote to extend the production cuts beyond the May 2018 deadline and also decide to deepen those production cuts.

Strong CPI Data Could Sink Gold - Gold traders ignored the rebound in the U.S. Dollar on Thursday to finish at more than a two-week high as the focus for traders shifted to U.S. inflation figures due on Friday which are expected to give more clues on monetary policy. After rallying most of the week, gold investors are looking for a little direction. Stronger consumer inflation data on Friday could create resistance for the precious metal along with increased demand for higher risk assets, a firmer U.S. Dollar and rising Treasury yields. Geopolitical uncertainty over North Korea and political issues in Washington and parts of Europe could underpin gold prices as well as weaker-than-expected consumer inflation data. Although gold didn’t react to the movement in the U.S. Dollar on Thursday, it still should be noted. The U.S. Dollar rebounded on Thursday after being pressured most of the week. The catalyst behind the rally was a report showing a rise in U.S. producer inflation. This news somewhat offset the weakness caused on Wednesday by the U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting minutes that showed policymakers were concerned about the impact of low inflation on the economy. The minutes from the September Fed meeting showed that many Federal Open Market Committee members still believed that another rate increase this year “was likely to be warranted, but there were a few members who said additional tightening depended on upcoming inflation data.

Prices May Be Supported by Heating Demand - Natural gas futures rose on Thursday on forecasts that colder weather will lead to increased heating demand. A drop in production due Hurricane Nate also helped underpin prices.
Traders should nearly no reaction to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s report showing storage last week increased by slightly more than expected. According to the EIA, utilities added 87 billion cubic feet of gas into storage in the week to October 6, leaving the total amount of fuel in inventories near the five-year average for this time of year at around 3.6 trillion cubic feet. Analysts were looking for an injection of 82 bcf. That compares with a 79 bcf increase during the same week a year earlier and a five-year average of 87 bcf for that period. The news about increased heat demand was a surprise. This could cause some short-covering but it would be better for the longer-term structure of the market if a support base was built instead.


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MCX COMMODITY MARKET NEWS & UPDATES - 12 OCT 2017

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(GOLD) Weak U.S. Dollar Could Drive Prices Over $1296.40 - Gold closed lower on Wednesday as investors showed a mixed response to the Fed minutes and other external factors. Increased chances of a Fed rate hike weighed on gold prices, but concerns over low inflation were supportive. Also underpinning gold was the news that Catalonia’s leader balked at making a formal declaration of independence from Spain, sending the Euro higher and the U.S. Dollar down. Due to the importance of the Fed minutes, gold traders showed limited response to reports that the U.S. military flew two strategic bombers over the Korean peninsula in a show of force late Tuesday and that President Trump met top defense officials to discuss how to respond to any threat from North Korea. The U.S. Dollar declined against a basket of currencies on Wednesday, hitting a two-week low, in reaction to the U.S. Federal Reserve minutes which revealed that central bank policymakers are open to an interest rate hike in December, but are still concerned about weak inflation. The dollar also fell under pressure on fading hopes on Trump’s tax plan. Additionally, the Euro, which represents 57 percent of the index, reached a two-week peak on less worries about Catalonia. According to the Fed minutes, several policymakers expressed some concerns over low inflation, saying they would like more data in the next few months when deciding on future rate hikes. That view pointed to a divergence between the Fed and the financial markets. Essentially, the view within the Fed raised some doubts among traders that third rate hike in 2017 would be a sure thing, though it has largely been priced into the futures market.

Chile Copper Export Hits 3-Year High in September, Sees Copper Price Rise Later This Year -December Comex High Grade Copper futures spiked to its highest level since September 8 on Wednesday as speculators continued to respond to expectations of potential shortages in China and as a weaker U.S. Dollar helped drive up foreign demand for dollar-denominated copper. The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The market is in no danger to turn the main trend to down, but it is in the window of time for a potentially bearish closing price reversal top. Chile’s copper export value reached $3.18 billion in September, the highest over the past three years. Pan Pacific Copper to Hike Copper Production in Next 6 Months. Chile’s  mining minister Aurora Williams said copper prices will rise mildly for the remainder of the year, but will unlikely push to $3 per pound. US Copper Imports Fall Sharply in August and Exports Grow.     


CRUDE OIL - U.S. West Texas Intermediate and internationally-favored crude oil futures finished slightly higher on Wednesday as investors prepared for the release of weekly inventories data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) on Wednesday and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday. Oil prices rose for a third day on Wednesday as OPEC forecast higher demand for 2018 and heightened tensions in Kurdistan supported prices. In addition to forecasting stronger demand for its oil in 2018, OPEC said production cuts by producing nations were clearing the global crude glut. Saudi Arabia said it pumped 9.97 million barrels per day in September, up from August, but still below target. In other news, the world’s second largest crude trader Glencore said the market can absorb the volumes along with those from the North Sea and West Africa. “I think the market is able to absorb that 2 million bpd of U.S. exports easily,” Glencore’s head of oil trading Alex Beard told the Reuters Global Commodities Summit. “I don’t think there are many losers out there.”


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